The bulk-credited master-cycle moat (master_cycle_fires_sharp) #
master_cycle_fires (Counting/Moats.lean) bounds the outer boundary ∂₂ ≤ Σ_F(deg − 1) and
then caps Σ_F(deg − 3) by the whole excess budget n − 8, via F ∪ S₁ ⊆ univ. That step
throws away Σ_{S₂}(deg − 3), the excess sitting in the bulk — which, on the starved census,
is the bulk of the excess: only n₃ = X + 8 vertices have degree 3, so every one of the other
|S₂| − n₃ bulk vertices spends at least 1.
Keeping that term turns the ledger into an identity over the partition S₁ ⊔ F ⊔ S₂ = univ and
replaces the firing threshold
3·Σ_{S₁}(deg − 1) ≤ n + 8 (i.e. 9k ≤ n + 8 on a degree-≤ 4 cycle)
by the strictly weaker
4·Σ_{S₁} deg + n₃ ≤ 2n + 8 + 4k (i.e. 12k + n₃ ≤ 2n + 8, i.e. 12k + X ≤ 2n).
Since the hoarding law gives 3X + 26 ≤ n, the new threshold dominates the old at every cell:
the forbidden cycle length rises from (n+8)/9 to (2n − X)/12, a factor 1.2–1.5.
Everything else — the slice bound, the moat cap |F| ≤ Σ_{S₁}(deg − 2), the two-cluster tie — is
verbatim master_cycle_fires; only the ledger and the threshold change.
The degree-3 census identity n₃ = X + 8. From the excess ledger
Σ_v (deg v − 3) = n − 8: a degree-3 vertex spends 0, and every other vertex spends
(deg − 4) + 1, so n − 8 = X + (n − n₃).
The sharpened tier-9 short-cycle kill. A cycle of degree-≤ 4 vertices fires the
two-cluster moat whenever 12·k + X ≤ 2n — against 9·k ≤ n + 8 for v9_short_cycle_fires.
Since the hoarding law gives 3X + 26 ≤ n, the new threshold is strictly weaker at every cell:
the forbidden length rises from (n+8)/9 to (2n − X)/12.